What's Next For Long-Term Care In The US?

As the US population continues to age, long-term care (LTC) has become a critical focus for healthcare systems, policymakers, and investors alike.  

Americans are living longer, often with complex medical and support needs, and the demand for extended care services is rapidly accelerating.  

In this blog, we explore where the LTC market stands today, where it’s headed by 2030, and how organizations can prepare for the future of aging in America.

The Current LTC Landscape 

In 2024, the US LTC market is valued at approximately $475-500 billion. This expansive market encompasses nursing homes, assisted living communities, home healthcare services, and hospice care, providing a range of options to meet the diverse needs of older adults.  

Demographics are a major driver: more than 70% of adults aged 65 or older will require some form of LTC in their lifetime. The aging Baby Boomer population, particularly those entering their late 70s, is expected to significantly boost demand for LTC in the coming years. 

At the same time, consumer preferences are shifting. More seniors prefer to receive care at home, where they can maintain comfort, independence, and routine.  

This preference is reshaping the industry. The home healthcare market alone is projected to grow from $94.17 billion in 2022 to $153.19 billion by 2029, propelled not only by demographic shifts, but also by increasing acceptance of remote and community-based care.

What The LTC Market Will Look Like By 2030 

The US LTC market is expected to grow steadily, reaching a value of between $730-$750 billion by 2030. This represents an estimated annual growth rate of 6-7%  over the next six years.  

Much of this growth will be driven by an aging population. According to the US Census Bureau, all Baby Boomers will be over the age of 65 by 2030, with adults aged 65 or older comprising 21% of the US population—up from just 16% in 2016. 

Policy is also playing a significant role in shaping the future. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) anticipates that spending on home healthcare will increase by 7.1% between 2025 and 2026, outpacing growth in other healthcare sectors.  

As a result, home healthcare services are not only gaining popularity, but they are also receiving institutional support.

Meanwhile, new developments in the sector are increasingly focused on assisted living and memory care, which are proving more attractive than traditional nursing homes for many families. The preference for home-like, personalized care is a defining characteristic of the next generation of LTC services.

Challenges On The Horizon

Despite robust market growth, the LTC sector faces several significant challenges that may limit its ability to meet future demand effectively.  

Staffing Shortages

• The workforce crisis presents one of the most pressing challenges to LTC. While statistics for other states aren’t available, the Public Policy Institute of California estimates that California alone will face a shortage of 600,000 to over 3 million direct care workers by 2030.  

• With high turnover rates, low wages, and limited opportunities for career advancement, LTC providers struggle to attract and retain qualified staff. Many facilities are already capping admissions simply because they don’t have the personnel to meet demand. 

Financial Sustainability

• Financial sustainability is another major concern. Medicaid currently covers over 60% of all LTC costs, yet reimbursement rates often fall short of actual service costs.  

• This disparity has placed considerable financial strain on LTC providers, especially in the face of rising wages, inflation, and regulatory demands.  

• The situation is particularly difficult for middle-income seniors, those who earn too much to qualify for Medicaid but not enough to afford private-pay options, leaving many without feasible care. 

Accessible, Equitable, & Quality Care 

• There are also persistent disparities in access and quality of care. Rural communities have been disproportionately affected by facility closures. Since 2020, rural nursing homes have accounted for 31% of all closures, despite representing only 13.5% of the nation’s facilities, leading to the emergence of so-called “nursing home deserts.” 
• Racial and ethnic minorities continue to experience poorer health outcomes and lower quality care in LTC settings, often due to language barriers, cultural disconnect, and limited availability of bilingual staff and culturally competent services.

How Market Research Helps LTC Providers And Investors

LTC care is changing quickly. Staffing shortages, shifting expectations, and complex referral systems make it harder to keep up. Market research brings clarity in a few key ways: 

• Fixes referral bottlenecks 
  Research reveals where the intake process breaks down and how families make care decisions, which leads to stronger referral relationships. 

• Clarifies workforce challenges 
  Labor studies highlight wage trends, burnout risks, and training gaps, enabling LTC providers to make informed staffing decisions.  

• Strengthens outreach strategy and efficacy 
  Insights into how patients and their families view care options help LTC providers connect more effectively with private-pay and underserved groups. 

• Supports diverse communities 
  Market research helps LTC providers navigate cultural, language, and trust barriers, making patient care more inclusive and responsive. 

Market research gives healthcare leaders the information they need to adapt, improve care, and plan with confidence. MDRG uses a Whole Mind Approach™ that blends emotional and rational insights to help clients see the full picture.

What’s Next? 

The LTC market is growing rapidly in the United States, driven by demographic shifts, policy evolution, and shifting consumer expectations.  

Alongside this growth, healthcare organizations face real challenges, particularly in workforce capacity, affordability, and equitable access.

Looking ahead at the future of LTC, the most successful organizations will be those that listen closely, respond quickly, and build care models that support the way people truly want to live.